Lou Gehrig's Disease - Motor Neuron Disease - Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis
Thought it had been cured by now? Still no known cause. Still no cure. Still quickly fatal. Still outrageous.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

The Catch-22 of Forecasting Markets

Here is an abstract for a new analysis of the pharmaceutical market for ALS:
The market analysis certainly wouldn't give deep-pocketed capitalists a lot of reasons to invest in this market-- "It has analyzed the current market landscape and found it to be weak."
Perhaps the current market is weak because the one drug approved for that market is weak and isn't compelling enough for many patients to use. Perhaps the current market is weak because the patients die so quickly. Perhaps the current market is weak because we really don't have a good idea of how many patients there are.
Perhaps all of the reasons why the market is perceived to be weak would be proven wrong if only there were an effective therapy for ALS.
These reports can be a kind of racing sheet for those making decisions on where to place their sizable bets on where to invest in the uncertain race of drug development.
Those who pay attention to ALS know that it is more pervasive than medical science perceives and that this report implies.
Without good therapies, the market looks weak. A market perceived as weak doesn't elicit investment so that we'll get good therapies. How do we break this cycle of stagnation?

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